Lessons learned

Blake Aued's picture

Overall, I was 14-2 in my predictions from yesterday. Not too bad. If only I applied such foresight to my NCAA tournament picks.

Here’s what I took away from the primary results:

Never underestimate Paul Broun. We all laughed at his polls, but they turned out to be right. At least I picked him this time, but I never dreamed he would do as well as he did. He laid a world-class whupping on Barry Fleming. I should have known when I heard that Broun planned a big victory bash, while Fleming spent a quiet evening at home.

It’s good to be the incumbent. Broun, John Barrow, John Lewis, Jim Marshall, even David Scott, one of the most ethically-challenged members of Congress, all easily survived primary challenges.

The natives are restless. Broun’s big win, plus the fact that four other sitting congressmen faced opposition, shows that both parties have serious problems with their bases. Between caving on FISA, immigration reform, etc., can you blame them? Maybe it’s time for Democrats to grow a pair and actually be Democrats, and Republicans to get back to their religious, small-government roots.

Endorsements don’t mean squat. The Rand Knight juggernaut parlayed endorsements from the AFL-CIO and the teachers’ pseudo-union into a whopping 5 percent of the vote. He barely beat out Josh Lanier, who spent less than $5,000 on his “un-campaign.” Speaking of Lanier, see the previous point. He is so gregarious and knowledgeable that he apparently won over every voter who met him in person. Imagine what he could have done if he hadn’t been trying to prove a point.

The Internets aren’t ready for prime time. The netroots darlings, Knight and Lanier, combined for 9 percent, while the universally blogger-derided Vernon Jones and Dale Cardwell won 56 percent. GOTV – get on television – is still the law of the land. And YouTube doesn’t count.

Vernon Jones is smarter than we thought. Obviously, Jones won urban blacks. But he also did very well in South Georgia, where apparently they’ll take a black man running as a conservative over a white Atlanta librul every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Jim Martin should be very afraid.

”Anti-business” is still no insult in Athens. Michael Coleman tried to put that tag on Chief Magistrate Patricia Barron, and look what happened. It didn’t hurt that Barron glad-handed at every Democratic event in town while Coleman stayed home. Even in primaries and nonpartisan elections, Athens voters can sniff out the “real Democrat.”

Ira Edwards is in trouble. The Clarke County sheriff had a serious undervote Tuesday compared to other unopposed candidates. Tax Commissioner Nancy Denson received 4,222 votes. Clerk of Court Beverly Logan received 4,103. Probate Judge Susan Tate received 3,967. District Attorney Ken Mauldin received 3,961. Edwards got just 3,789. That means 433 people who pulled the lever for Denson just couldn’t bring themselves to do it for Edwards. His independent opponent, ACCPD Sgt. Kenny Brown, should take note.

Blake.aued@onlineathens.com

Tags
Comments

In retrospect

we should have seen a better turn out for Vernon. Considering the fact that Lewis and Scott were contested in minority saturated districts there would be a higher than normal black turn out. That shouldn't be the case in the run-off.

I am still shocked about how badly Fleming lost. Apparently the 10th district is less educated than even I thought it would be.

"I am still shocked about

"I am still shocked about how badly Fleming lost. Apparently the 10th district is less educated than even I thought it would be."

Yeah that, or you're less educated than you thought you'd be. After hearing how smart you were, from you, I am shocked you were so off. I expected you would at least be a little close to matching your proclaimed intellectual superiority with some numbers that matched the talk.
The enemy of learning, is knowing.

"That means 433 people who

"That means 433 people who pulled the lever for Denson just couldn’t bring themselves to do it for Edwards"

Proud to say I was one of 'em.

me too. No more years for

me too. No more years for Ira!! I didn't even realize there was an independent candidate running. I don't know anything about him, but so long as he's not a member of some supremacist group or a convicted murderer, I'm all for him.

Jacob if only we were as smart as you

Albert has

A doctorate from UGA
A Specialist Degree from Clemson
A Masters Degree from UGA
A BS from UGA
A AA degree from a private junior college

I have posted the fact that Fleming never released poll numbers to refute Broun several times on this blog. It didn't take a rocket scientist to why he never released those numbers.

Maybe one day I (and the other dolts from the 10th district) will be as smart as you when I grow up.

Is Albert a pseudonym for

Is Albert a pseudonym for Rand Knight?

Impressive Jacob. But I

Impressive Jacob. But I didn't graduate from high school and I'm still smarter than Durden.

Fleming actually never did

Fleming actually never did any polling... they saved all that money for advertising.

The people of the 10th are fairly stupid.

The 10th district has one of the highest unemployment rates in the state and has the lowest per capita income in the state. I will also add that it is the second lowest in average home values. Why would any group of people in that condition vote for Paul Broun?

That is why I call them uneducated, Albert. I care nothing for your degrees...and that tells me (if you have degrees in a field related to politics) you are socially/politically retarded. Your intelligence, or determination, is one dimensional. Mine probably is as well. Fleming spent twice as much on advertising as Broun did. Plug that into any advanced regression model to forecast the results of the election...70-30 is not the results you get. It just goes to show that those morons in north ga care more about guns and religion than their economic well being.

I never claim intellectual superiority...I just claim that I know losing campaigns when I see them. I never had Broun pegged as a loser. I supported Fleming, but I do believe that in a recent post that I though broun would win in a fairly close election. I do know, however, that Saxon is a loser. Everyone knew that Cardwell, Lanier and Knight are losers.

Furthermore, Albert, you need to realize that any political discussion that takes into consideration the forecasted results of an election needs to be made in over-generalizations. The people of NE GA, when I call them stupid, takes a good deal of people out of the equation. Certainly I am not talking about UGA professors. Outside of Athens and Augusta (and a few planned communities) the people of NE GA are stupid. They just proved that again with their GOP primary pick. I am sure that they do not believe the same thing that Broun does when we bring up the topic of federalism and other constitutional questions...they do not know what federalism is (neither does Broun while I am at it). Broun has made promises not to fight to bring our tax dollars back to the district. I can honestly say that my tax dollars go to D.C. and Iraq. They are not going to roads and hospitals in my district. They are not going to schools and other infrastructure in my district. The police officers that protect my community having a blind eye turned to them in Washington. He is your typicall Beta-Male...a John Galt wannabe.

Jacob/Jeff, why did you not raise enough money for Bobby?

So do those stupid people in the 10th include those who continually get fired from other campaigns (too many to list here) to only burn bridges and make it all about themselves instead of looking in the mirror to realize that by making others seem stupid you are really puffing up your own shortcomings and fail to realize that these races and campaigns are not about you?

People with the last name of Glass should not throw stones.

Dan Matthews

Two things- J1. acob, this

Two things-

J1. acob, this post makes me finally realize WHY people hate you so much on this board.

That said...

2. I am in complete admiration of your honesty. I might not agree point by point, but God knows I've had murderous thoughts myself about the morons in North Georgia. But unfortunately, many fellow blog trolls personally hate you so much they won't consider the truth in what you say.

John Galt wannabe---CLASSIC! And great point about how Broun has promised not to bring money back home, yet he wins a landslide. Wonderful. It's like I always say--why are there any poor Republicans? The only explanations are the "2nd amendment" and "religion" cards.

Two things-J1. acob, this

Two things-

1. Jacob, this post makes me finally realize WHY people hate you so much on this board.

That said...

2. I am in complete admiration of your honesty. I might not agree point by point, but God knows I've had murderous thoughts myself about the morons in North Georgia. But unfortunately, many fellow blog trolls personally hate you so much they won't consider the truth in what you say.

John Galt wannabe---CLASSIC! And great point about how Broun has promised not to bring money back home, yet he wins a landslide. Wonderful. It's like I always say--why are there any poor Republicans? The only explanations are the "2nd amendment" and "religion" cards.

Leave him out of it.

He is a good kid and scolded me yesterday for mentioning his name in a previous post.

I met him at the candidate qualification and have become somewhat of a friend over the past couple of months. I apologize to him for his name getting mixed up in all of this.

Dan Mattews,...now you must be Bobby Saxon. There is nobody else over at Saxon's office that is paid staff.

Who got fired though? I know you fired Cantone, but I was under the impression that everybody else left to better things...like a job were they get paid on time and will get paid in the future.

Why I will not raise? Because I have one issue that means a good deal for me. I look back over the past 10 years in my work life and most of my friends were put out of work because they can not afford to work for $15/hr like an undocumented immigrant can. Saxon refused to give me an answer and tried to step around that with the "I am a good democrat" b.s. I was hoping to help his campaign. Regardless of were he stands on the issue at this point, I will not help. His 1st quarter report was pathetic, same with the 2nd quarter report. All elections are about the people. My "people" are the men and women I stood up for against management. Wages, pensions, health insurance, hours, etc. Saxon, you can not win. I will not waste my time on a campaign that can not win. I am probably going to head back up to PA to help out Altmire or Carney for the general election, so I will be out of your hair. They are on the frontline.

I am glad that I have been able to get some many people angry and posting on Blake's blog.

I'm jealous, I'm not sure who all is insulted here-masterful

they can not afford to work for $15/hr like an undocumented immigrant can..

That's as much as a beginning schoolteacher makes.

That's more than a caseworker at DFCS makes.

I'm sure they are flattered by the comparison.

You can add all the peons

You can add all the peons who works at the ABH to that list as well, Mr. Ghost.

s

s

Not the least bit angry but sad 4u, Jeff, and I am me not Bobby

Look I will be glad to assert my real identity no matter who you may accuse me of being. If you are going to impugn my integrity, at least have the decency to spell my name correctly. I wish you luck with your fundraising/flamethrowing in future campaigns. Given your contempt and venom, I would suggest strongly working for the GOP. I would bet you could find some more losers to sink over there. You definitely have the Karl Rove/Lee Atwater playbook down pat. You obviously know your stuff, but I think you apply way too many generalization and beltway prognostications to an area that defies most standard political forecasting logic and quotients

Dan Matthews

I do all the time.

There is nothing wrong with the way Karl Rove campaigns...he wins elections. It is unfortunate that he is a republican though.

Let's leave Jeff out of this. He needs to pick the candidates he works for better, but he is on two competitive races and has enough to worry about wihout his name being smeared because of my irresponsible tongue.

You are correct, the 10th district tends to defy the odds when it comes to the GOP. We need a democrat with money though, alot of it. Profiles only get you so far and too many political neophytes think that there are a bunch of wealthy democratic donors that fund races. The truth is far from that assumption. Profiles are not enough, I am repeating myself but it is apparent that the georgia democratic party committees do not get it. They would be better off finding a lawyer or doctor with no military experience and is only somewhat of a democrat.

I want democrats to win, but democrats in GA need to be informed about who has a shot and that they need to put all of their support behind the viable candidates.

obvious point

I'm sure we're all sick of this thread, but I just have to add:

There is *everything* wrong with the way Karl Rove campaigns. The ends do not justify the means.

This is getting ridiculous

I would prefer that everyone who posts here use their real names, but I didn't make up the rules of the Internet, so we have anonymous commenters, and that's the way it is.

However, I have a problem with someone who takes the identity of another person. Based on what people have posted here, there is a real Jacob Durden, and you are not him. That makes you a troll.Could someone with access to Vote Builder or another voter file please contact Jacob Durden and ask him if he is posting here?

Jacob, I respect your opinion, even though you can be uncouth when expressing it and you're a one-trick pony. You lack credibility, though. And not because of the questions surrounding your identity. How could you be active in local Democratic politics and not know who Dan Matthews is?

Blake, There is no Jacob

Blake,

There is no Jacob Durden registered to vote in the 10th CD.

George

I thought Maddy said she

I thought Maddy said she found a Jacob Durden. Maybe in Pennsylvania?

I know the PETA guy

that is it. I am not from here. I just retired to the area not long ago. It does not matter if you are in GA or PA...campaigns cost lots of cash and without it there is no victory.

That is Dan Mathews, not Daniel J. Matthews, Jr.

The only thing that similar name has yielded me was getting backstage at a B-52's concert in Jamaica in 1982, and I think that was long before PETA was so notorious.

Dan Matthews

????????

Jacob,

For the first time we agree on something! Jeff is a great guy and a good friend. I truly miss working with him. Regarding your claim about being a "good Democrat", first, it's not BS! There are many of us, me included, that believe in the fundamental principles of our party. Second, I was personally contacted by your friend Eli and he asked several policy questions for the both of you. At that time I invited both Eli and you to come to our office a meet with Bobby and I. I was confidant the both of you had something of value to offer the campaign. Being from the North East, I was raised to have respect for our labor unions and what they stand for. Unfortunately, neither of you ever showed any interest in meeting with us and sharing you concerns.

You had your chance to make a difference - you both decided to take the easy way out and bitch rather than impact. You should be ashamed of you lack of any significant action!

George Preston Birchby

I am ashamed

of Saxon's lack of significant action. I am not going to help a guy that will not help himself. Helping a campaign get from 27% to 30% is not worth the time or effort.

Without $350K on hand...he will be lucky to get in the upper 30's.

On that note, I am done on this blog. I have lost a good acquaintance and given my two cents.

You won't have Durden to

You won't have Durden to kick around anymore, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference.

It's easier to kick someone around when he's not around!

How much you wanna bet, that dude will be back here only under a different name?? Side bets on what name he'll choose.

I've got my money on Dacob

I've got my money on Dacob Jurden

Genius! No one will ever

Genius! No one will ever know!

It's a southern thing

I'm thinking David Jordon.

Has a nice southern ring, maintains the Biblical tie, and we can argue about whether it's "Jer-dan" or "Jor-don"

I miss Lost ... a lot

I am thinking he is going to do what "Lost" did at the end of season 3 when we were introduced to the flash forward concept. The name of the funeral home was Hoffs/Drawler and it was just FLASH FORWARD scrambled.

So I am going with Dean Jobcurd.

Maddy checking in, and DNC Howard Dean is coming to GA!

I believe I said I found TWO Jacob Durdens, one aged 22, who had never voted, and that he is listed as living w/his parents, one of whom is also a Jacob, who live in a District here in GA (I could just about swear it was the 11th, but this conversation has been going on a long time and my memory is far from perfect) and that though the younger had never voted, both his parents had picked up Republican ballots in recent primaries.

None of them live in the 10th CD, unless he's over here as a student, and I'm beginning to believe that it's his Dad posting all this stuff about experience. VAN shows his Dad and Mom as Republicans, for as long as it goes back, or perhaps from when they moved down here. I also understand, though, that Jacob Durden the younger, (who may indeed have voted in his first primary the other day) has a friend who Blake mentioned earlier, who holds a very public grudge w/Saxon.

So this must be the Senior posting all this stuff that sounds strangely like someone else I know, and who's hatred of Bobby has become a joke in most circles. I don't know how who met who, but think this is a great time to mention that George Birchby is a real class act. I'm glad he was here, even for a short while, and that his experiences w/that campaign hasn't discouraged his further involvement w/Democrats running for office. I hear he may be lending JMac and Mike Hamby a hand, among others. He is Chair of the Habersham County Dems, and I can only hope he gets a chance to serve on the State Committee one day, his is the kind of party loyalty we need.

I've been disappointed by a couple of Dems I've worked for over the years, but can't imagine going on and on and on and on about ANY of them for months, in a public forum.

The level of dare I say "moronic" stuff we were hearing from whichever Jacob Durden who has decided to insert himself into this race by bashing Bobby is a new low, and if it's information being fed to him by his former former campaign manager, they should really check their sources. He's pretty much discredited himself w/every loyal Democrat I know, except, of course, the one he's working for these days, who is a first time candidate too... Perhaps because word has gotten around and nobody with any real political chops in the DPG will ever trust him again?

Hey, here's some news for ya, did you know that DNC Chair Howard Dean will be in Macon next Saturday, for a special fundraiser, ticket price of 250, at 11:30 am, prior to our State Committee Meeting? That's right, the BIG bus is coming to GA., and if you can't swing the ticket price for the 11:30 event, then you can attend the meeting (which is a business, voting meeting) as a non-voting Democrat, and maybe get your picture taken w/DNC Chair Howard Dean himself!

I think I have my email list up and running again, and will be sending out a ballot according to Maddy re the DNC slots we're voting on as soon as I make up my mind. These positions will be for four year terms which will begin AFTER Denver. It's been amazing, there are 7 candidates for the 2 male slots, and I think 5 at this point, for the 2 female slots. I have been agonizing over this, several of the folks running are exactly my kind of Democrat, or people who have been real friends to me despite slight differences on how we get from here to there. The ultimate goal has got to be electing a Democratic Governor to preside over the redistricting (we may gain an entire district!) following the 2010 census.

A couple of my choice have been real easy, like the decision to vote for Page Gleason, who I supported last time, and Stephen Leeds, who I have supported for years and years and years. But the other choices are really tough. I am leaning towards folks who have NOT served previously, just because this is a campaign for change cycle.

Of course, the real issue is will the folks we elect put the new south, the new Democratic Party of GA in play, and keep us/it there? It sure is hard, when I've come to know and respect and like SO many of the candidates. As Stephen put it the other night when we spoke, I have a lot of friends in these races, and am going to have to make a real pro and con list based on what I believe will be best for the future of the party here in GA. Which as you know, means opening seats at the table and courting the poor, minority, disabled, and elderly voters for more than their votes. I'm one of those goofy Dems that believe that seats at the table should be awarded not just on the ability of someone to pay big bucks to attend all the national meetings and big ticket fundraisers, but on the basis of loyalty and hard work.

Wish me luck sorting this out, fairly and kindly, and without destroying alliances it's taken me years to build. This stuff ain't for the faint of heart.

Meanwhile, Jacob, Jr or Sr., or whoever you are, why don't you get involved in politics in your own district, and leave those of us who love the 10th to take care of our own?

I can't believe when I finally got my puter working, I came back here to find the same old same old going on weeks later. Get over it, all ye Jacobs, wherever you live, and get involved where you can do your best to push your nasty and false agenda in your own District.

Sheesh.

Madelyn

Shouldn't this be about

Shouldn't this be about ideas and not names? I don't give a darn if his name is Jacob or Zeak or Bob. As for me, I'd say who I am, but I'd probably get fired.

I do take some offense to the comment JD made about people with advanced degrees in politically related fields being social retarded. People with economics degrees in my experience are really the only class of degrees that draw or yield people who are socially retarded (disclaimer: not everyone with an econ degree fits that category, but nearly everyone I've met who is socially challenged has an econ degree).

Bulldog77 is fine, but if

Bulldog77 is fine, but if you were David Clark and you were calling yourself Bob Snipes I'd have a problem with that. Use a handle if you must, but don't take another person's identity or pretend to be someone you're not.

RE: economics degrees, does that bring any Athens-Clarke commissioners to mind?

Negative ad - Flemmster

I must comment on JD's post from a bit earlier. You call the citizens of the 10th uneducated because they voice a different opinion than you? Citizens went out and voted for Broun, and he walked away victorious. I am not throwing my support behind Mr.Broun, but I definitely do not like Barry Flemming.

Flemming made PLENTY of mistakes during his campaign. One of his biggest mistakes, a politics of cynicism. Everything that Barry had to say about Paul this entire race was rhetoric that was meant to destroy his character.

I understand politics and I know that there is a time and a place for a small bit of negativity - but every single time that you have a chance to tell us why you are the right candidate, comment on yourself and not your opponent. Tell us what good YOU can do for us. I didn't learn anything from Mr.Flemming because every time that I read something about him or watched a commercial, he was strictly talking about the bad in Mr.Broun.

As a Centrist, I believe in showing contrast, but I do not support negative ad peddling. If you believe that you are the man for the job, simply show the citizens. Rally them!

I will gladly say that I hope Karl Rove is incarcerated the very minute he steps back on American soil. I honestly can't believe that he ignored a subpoena and thought that he could get away with it, haha. This guy needs help.

My last word - I hope - on the GOP primary

Most of you will disagree with me, but I believe Barry Fleming ran a solid campaign. As a challenger he had no choice but to attack the incumbent. He made a legit argument that Broun's past indiscretions are relevant; the voters did not agree. He painted Broun as a fringe ideologue and himself as more moderate, mainstream alternative; again, the voters did not agree. He pointed out where he would have voted differently than Broun; the voters did not agree. However, those were all sound tactics. I think the relentless attacks did backfire, but if he had never said anything bad about Broun he would have done even worse. People vote for or against the incumbent more so than for or against the challenger, who is by definition less well-known. "That guy's OK, but I'm better, so vote for me," isn't going to work. The citizens are not paying enough attention to be rallied.

You are 100% right in your

You are 100% right in your response. I see things from both sides and I think he ran a solid campaign also. In my eyes, I could not run a campaign fueled by negativity. The key to winning any election over an incumbent is to rally the citizens.

The citizens are not paying enough attention to be rallied, correct. Someone needs to change that. I believe that America's destiny is to become a living testament to what free human beings can accomplish by acting in unity. We have every chance to try to make it clear to our citizens that voting is VERY important, yet many still do not show up to the polls. Most American citizens are beginning to wake up and realize that without their voices, we will always fall to the special interest and everyone else who wants to enact their blueprints. It really hurts to think about how much better we can be and how much our society has been through in the past eight-years. The only way to change our situation is to act in unity.

I say to Broun, congratulations and I say to Flemming, try to connect a little better with the public.

Brandon L. Shinholser

Schinholser is a kiss ***

Go back and smoke some more pot and grow up. We all know why you are here and it is sad that you actually think it will work. Come up with some original ideas and stop kissing Blakes BOOTAEY!

Nice

First of all, my name is spelled Shinholser and not Schinholser(as you can read on the end of all of my post). I am not certain of the reason that you think I am here, but you can enthuise me if you like. I have original idea's and I was only stating my simple opinion. I am against negative campaigning and I spoke up without trying to harm anyone else.

Thank you.