Good morning, all.
Paul Broun didn’t just win last night, but he trounced an opponent who had more money, full party backing and called the largest metro area in the district home. Sound familiar?
We broke down Broun’s 70-30 win this morning. You’ll find Broun took 85 percent of GOP voters in Clarke County, 78 percent in Oconee and boasted 3- and 4-to-1 margins across the rural portions of the district. The closest Barry Fleming came to a county victory was in Richmond County, where he won 48 percent. Columbia County, where twice as many voters cast ballots as any other county in the district, went for Broun 58 percent to 42 percent. Amazing stuff.
In November, Broun will face Democrat Bobby Saxon, a businessman and Army veteran from Nicholson. No question, Saxon will lose by a similar margin. Perhaps even more (if that’s possible) as Saxson continues the proud tradition of Democratic sacrificial lambs in the 10th.
Anyone remember the James Marlow campaign? I didn’t think so.
So how does Paul Broun do it? Does he know the district voters that well? Does he have special mojo? Or does he, as opinions editor Jim Thompson guessed this morning, truly sit at the right hand of God?
Fleming, the sleepy-eyed candidate who exuded disinterest as well as he did GOP circ. 2004 talking points, blamed the fact Broun was an incumbent for his embarrassing loss. “There’s a reason why 99 percent of incumbents win primaries. It’s very difficult as a challenger, even though we raised a good bit of money.”
No so fast, Barry.
Granted, no incumbent was on the ticket, but Jim Whitehead ran the single worst campaign in the history of state politics and still managed to win his home Augusta-centric counties in 2007. Fleming got trounced on his home turf. I have trouble believing the (I) next to Broun’s name allowed him to overcome an uphill climb against his better-funded, party-backed, mud-slinging, metro-centric campaign. That’s a powerful, little letter, but not that powerful.
To be honest, Broun was more of a lowercase (i), serving only one year before being tested again.
No, maybe Barry needs to look closer at the fact we’ve seen the district reject two Augusta Republicans in the last two races. This speaks more to the state of Augusta politics – and how disconnected it is to the rest of the district – than it does incumbent status.
Even Fleming’s own neighbors don’t like him. That, my friends, says quite a bit. Think what people would be saying if Broun lost Clarke and Oconee counties?
Say what you will about Broun, and there is plenty to say, but the guy is about as open and unscripted as they come. That goes a long way with the grassroots. Both Fleming and Whitehead ran empty, talking points campaigns based on the fact that they deserve to be in Congress because, well, just because they deserve to be in Congress. That’s not exactly something for voters to get excited about.
Even the avowed Broun-haters on the Augusta Chronicle editorial board couldn’t speak to Fleming’s actual accomplishments – limiting itself to a resume recitation – and opted to tear down Broun and wrap Fleming in some creepy Charlie Norwood skin.
A chunk from their endorsement:
(He) is absolutely the candidate most cut from the great Charlie Norwood's cloth. He is, in short, most representative of the 10th Congressional District. … There is no other candidate with (the) experience and stature. No one in the race better reflects this God-fearing, flag-respecting, self-reliant region. No one else could hit the ground running in Washington like he could. And we don't believe anyone's motives for running are any more virtuous: When (he) goes to Washington, it won't be either an ego trip or a power trip; finally, when you hear someone say "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help," you'll be able to believe it.
I’m sorry. That’s my mistake. That was what the newspaper said about Jim Whitehead when they so lovingly endorsed the last Augusta candidate in the 10th District. Here’s what our sister newspaper said in its loving endorsement of Fleming in this primary:
Barry Fleming is the kind of man who can hit the ground running in Washington and never leave his principles behind. … He is a citizen legislator as contemplated by the nation's founders, and a rock-solid conservative in the mold of Charlie Norwood and the people of the 10th District of Georgia.
… Don't just vote for Barry Fleming for 10th District representative to Congress July 15 - or this week, during early voting. Make absolutely sure you do it. Leave yourself a voicemail, put a note next to your toothbrush, send yourself one of those "get out and vote" Hallmark cards. Whatever it takes. Congress is nothing to monkey with, or to settle for "good enough" in the voting booth. We deserve the best. We deserve Barry Fleming.
Yes, this race sounded familiar because it was essentially the same race in a different year. While we obsessed last year on this district being about Athens vs. Augusta, maybe it never was. Maybe it’s about Augusta vs. the rest of the district. And until members of the Augusta GOP figure out you must run a race based on connecting with voters not on assumptive ascension, then you’re going to see it play out this way again and again until that (I) next to Broun’s name really will mean something.
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Wrong again, winders
Whitehead ran a great campaign last year. What he couldn't fight is the power the media holds. The Banner-Herald(ABH) was so upset at his attack on liberalism, that it threw out it's ethics in journalism. This was done by only using "sound-byte" material from his quotes instead of using the whole quote in context. This is what happened with the "Iraq war is no big deal" fiasco, the Augusta vs. Athens fight, and just about every controversy the ABH could stir up. All of this so they could get one of their own elected. So, when Whitehead decides not to attend a debate put on by the morons at the ABH, he gets chastised as ducking the debate. He was vindicated when he won by a 2-1 margin in the 10 candidate primary in June of '07. No matter what anyone says, the Broun win in July '07 is a fluke. The low voter turnout by people who thought Whitehead would win handily was the reason. And, who wouldn't believe it after his convincing win in June? We all knew about Broun's past and so did certain people at the ABH. Whitehead even avoided bringing it out last year because he didn't believe in slinging mud and wanted to focus on the issues at hand. That is an honorable act on Whitehead's part. Yet, they painted this idiot Broun as a choir boy. Forget all the past tax stuff, the child support ducking, and the bankruptcies. The big one, in my opinion, is why Paul Broun is not allowed to practice medicine inside a Georgia hospital.
Is this someone you REALLY want representing you? We have now entered Cynthia McKinney land with Broun. Four years of embarrassment, WTF quotes, and votes based of Broun's inability to interpret the law. I don't know if he's conservative, liberal, or libertarian. All it means is ineffectiveness for the 10th CD. We really missed out on having a good man in Congress like Jim Whitehead. The ABH should be ashamed of how it conducted itself collectively against Mr. Whitehead.
Now, as a republican, I am giving Mr. Saxon (a democrat) a real good look. He is far more eloquent than Broun and doesn't lean all that far to the left(sorry, Winders). He is a war veteran and deserves to be heard. I don't think he would be anywhere near the embarrassment that Broun is.
I intend
I intend to vote for Saxon in the general election. I'd rather vote for someone who is wrong about everything than vote for someone who lies about everything.
The reason Whitehead lost
The reason Whitehead lost virtually every Democratic vote in ACC is that he joked about/ threatened to bomb UGA and its "liberal egghead profs" (I guess he's never been to the Bidness school here -- not too many liberals there!). Hardly a great thing to say. I think many Dems in Athens concluded that Broun is a son of a bitch, but at least he was our son of a bitch. He's also a clown, but so was Whitehead.
Ah, yes, blaming the media
Ah, yes, blaming the media for Whitehead’s decline. Classic stuff. Listen, I would give you that if it was only Jimmy Whitehead’s let’s-blow-up-UGA comment which haunted him over and over and over. But it wasn’t. Every time the guy opened his mouth it was something new and strange. (My favorite remains when he cribbed a Michelle Malkin column and insanely claimed that 'left-wing political activists (are) intentionally registering illegal aliens to vote, including known al-Qaida terrorists.'" Then when called on it, he refused to admit the truth. Wow.)
But understand I don’t blame Whitehead. He was a simple man in over his head.
I have never seen a candidate more scripted, pre-programmed and stripped of all personality. Again, I don’t blame Jimmy for his campaign, but the foolish arrogance running his show from behind the scenes – mainly Joel McElhannon and John Stone – couldn’t generate an ounce of competence on this one. By all accounts, locals who knew Jimmy from way back think he’s a personable guy who has something to say. Even they didn’t recognize the guy making appearances around the district.
That says something about the handling – or over-handling – of the candidate.
Also, the we-can-win-without-Athens plan was an absolute train wreck. Period. Off the recod, heck probably even on it, his team will even admit to that fact today. Broun can be beaten. But this is where the next challenger needs to draw most of their lessons. You cannot count on Augusta to win the 10th. Last time around, Broun showed that you can even win it without it. I know that’s quite a blow to their ego, but it’s played out that way twice. Augusta cannot deliver the seat.
And that’s not the media’s fault. It’s a matter of voter preference.
Besides, how do you explain away Broun winning this time? No media to blame. Maybe it’s the fact you keep running the same lame, carbon-copy Republican after lame, carbon-copy Republican we have all grown so tired of the last four-plus years.
Really?
"Whitehead ran a great campaign last year."
So running a rose garden campaign when you are not the incumbent, assuming you are going to win, failing to turn out voters in your home base and intentionally writing off a huge part of the district is a great campaign?
Attack on liberalism: A) Broun is more conservative than Whitehead or Fleming. B) The ABH did not endorse the most credible Democrat, James Marlow, in 2007.
"He was vindicated when he won by a 2-1 margin in the 10 candidate primary in June of '07."
No, because he lost the runoff.
"No matter what anyone says, the Broun win in July '07 is a fluke."
Wrong. If that were true, Broun wouldn't have won 71-29 against a strong opponent this time. Yes, everything had to fall into place in 2007, but give Broun credit for executing a brilliant strategy to win the runoff.
"The low voter turnout by people who thought Whitehead would win handily was the reason."
That was Whitehead's fault for not bring his people to the polls.
"The ABH should be ashamed of how it conducted itself collectively against Mr. Whitehead."
We gave him a fair shake. He refused to address the people of Athens and his staff admitted that he blew us off.
I'm sorry your guy lost. But don't blame us.
Wow, Aued, you dissappoint me
I will address both of you (Winders and Aued) here:
First, Aued:
I don't think coming into the election that anyone was more of a favorite than Jim Whitehead. He was more or less anointed by Congressman Norwood's staff, not to mention the fact he was a close personal friend of Norwood's. So, I don't think I understand your argument regarding the "Rose Garden".
Secondly, "Broun is more conservative than Whitehead.... " Really? Based on what? Because Broun ends every speech with "Pray for me?" This is a guy who criticized Jim Whitehead because he refused to campaign in a church. Whitehead goes to Wesleyan United Methodist Church in Evans. He prays at every meal. Don't believe me? Have a meal with him sometime. What is it that Whitehead has done or said that makes him less conservative? Whitehead is very anti-immigration, and is strong on national security. He is as conservative as Broun, save the "I'm going to heaven because God says so attitude".
I would like to know what made Marlow the most credible candidate... wait, Oh, I get it. nevermind. He's a liberal. Forget he was a top exec for a company (Yahoo!) that threw it's chinese website visitors under the bus (http://news.cnet.com/8301-10784_3-6037055-7.html).
"No, he lost the runoff": My point was that not attending the debate in Athens didn't hurt him as he won 43% of the vote in the primary election.
"Wrong. If that were true, Broun wouldn't have won 71-29 against a strong opponent this time. Yes, everything had to fall into place in 2007, but give Broun credit for executing a brilliant strategy to win the runoff.":
Broun's win yesterday had absolutely nothing to do with last year's election. What "brilliant" strategy did Broun pull off? Selling out his party for democratic votes? Right. Wow, that's a scary point you make. Whitehead wins 43% of the vote in one election, and somehow loses by 300+ votes less than a month later... really? Are you sure you want to make that point?
"That was Whitehead's fault for not bring his people to the polls."
Perhaps. Actually, I attribute it to laziness and stupidity on the part of Richmond and Columbia county voters for not getting out to vote.
"We gave him a fair shake. He refused to address the people of Athens and his staff admitted that he blew us off":
Do you really think you gave Jim Whitehead a fair shake? Seriously? Why did you not use all of the content from his interviews? Why, for instance, during the "Iraq war no big deal.." thing did you (someone at the ABH) not use his preface for that statement? He said that his campaign conducted a poll asking constituents what their biggest concerns are for the election. The top 3 responses were 1. Illegal Immigration, 2. Taxes, and 3. Education.
Yet, all the rest of the world gets from the ABH is: "Whitehead says the Iraq war is no big deal". The ABH took that and ran with it and it became the rallying cry against him. Another ABH attack is the whole Athens vs. Augusta thing. Again, at that Kiwanis meeting, Whitehead outlined all the things he wanted to do in the district. He mentioned his thoughts on the Interstate highway from Savannah to Knoxville, projects for North Georgia, and specifically the expansion of MCG to the Athens campus and the "Brain Train" between Athens and Atlanta (and potentially statewide spurs). Yet, what we got was "Whitehead says it's Augusta vs. Athens" and pointed to a tiny portion of his speech.
So, given that and some other choice ABH headlines, I don't blame Jim for not wanting to come to your little debate.
Winders:
First, I know Jim Whitehead and he is not a simple man. I can't believe you don't have that impression of Paul Broun. How this moron got out of medical school is a mystery. Jim has built a successful business and created a lot of partnerships. You don't do that by being simple.
The Malkin thing was an unfortunate staff goof. As much of a crackpot as she seems to be, it is plausible that illegal immigrants can be registered vote. It has happened. The Whitehead campaign's only fault is that they posted that story on the website. It doesn't dismiss the message of the story. Only it's messenger.
While I agree with you on McElhannon, I can't agree with you on Stone. The whole "bringing hell with us" quote didn't help things. John Stone is a very smart and knowledgeable man. He's going to be a great congressman.
It's easy to discern the problems on that staff by the comments that were made by that staff.
"I have never seen a candidate more scripted, pre-programmed and stripped of all personality.": Really? Have you ever seen him speak? It doesn't sound like the man I know. I haven't seen him speak in Athens or in any of the Northern Ga. counties, but I have in other locations. He has a great speech presence. I don't understand your characterization of him. You seem to have a personal beef with him.
Re: "the we-can-win-without-Athens plan ..." All I can tell you is that he never had that attitude. I can say that because I was close to the campaign and saw a lot. It seemed to have gotten personal from the Athens perspective and it all originated from the ABH.
"how do you explain away Broun winning this time":
It's simple, and you mentioned it in your post. A lot of people in Columbia County simply don't like Flemming. His loss wasn't a surprise to a lot of us here.
Politics, horse racing have a lot in common
Well I am no expert in politics, but it seems to me that the clear favorite in the beginning of the race usually doesn't cross the finish line first ... kinda like horse racing. I give you this past presidential primary season as an example. Back when all 97 candidates announced they were running for president in 2007, did anyone think it would really come down to Obama and McCain? Not from what I read ... everything I read said Hillary and Rudy. Or what about Howard Dean? Or Mike Huckabee? All early front-runners and what happened to them?
Fact of the matter is front-runners come under more scrutiny because they are front-runners. It's a dangerous place to be because you will probably be knocked out before the end.
"Really? Have you ever seen
"Really? Have you ever seen him speak?"
Yup. When we finally sat down with Whitehead for his candidate interview during the runoff, we couldn’t get a word in for the first 15 minutes or so because John Stone kept jumping in with “What the Congressman believes …” when the guy was sitting two feet away. Maybe you believed in Whitehead, but it sure seemed like John Stone didn’t. As they left, I told him, “John, maybe you should be the one running for office?”
And now, he's John Barrow's problem.
"Whitehead is very
"Whitehead is very anti-immigration." No, he claimed to be against amnesty but he supported a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. He said that to me and several other newspapers. That's one reason why Broun is more conservative.
I didn't say Marlow was the most credible candidate. I said he was the most credible Democrat. If the ABH wanted a liberal the editors would have endorsed Marlow.
"not attending the debate in Athens didn't hurt him." Go back and look at the 2007 results again. In the June race, Broun beat Whitehead badly in Athens and Oconee and essentially tied him everywhere outside Whitehead's Senate district. If Whitehead had paid attention to Athens and North Georgia he would have won without a runoff.
In the runoff, Broun's strategy was to exploit the Athens-Augusta divide and turn out Democrats, especially blacks, who tend to be religious and fondly remember his father. Remember, it was a nonpartisan race. Whether you like it or not, it was a good strategy because it worked.
Oh, and by the way, we didn't make that divide up. The article you are referring to was one we picked up from our sister paper, the Augusta Chronicle, which backed Whitehead.
Whitehead's own staff admitted that they intended to blow off Athens and start a regional divide. It was part of his campaign's strategy from the beginning and it backfired.
Your Blog(s), last comment is yours..
"No, he claimed to be against amnesty...":
Are we splitting hairs here? Do you really think Broun has a practical plan for dealing with illegal immigration? His choice is to either line up illegals and shoot them or spend lots of taxpayer dollars busing them out of the country. Which makes more sense? If Broun is more conservative, then why did he vote to allow states to authorize the use of marijuana? Not to be picky, but don't you think a loophole would be found to open it up for abuse? Come on now... Would a true conservative really vote for that?
"I didn't say Marlow was the most credible candidate.": Point conceded.
"If Whitehead had paid attention to Athens": He did pay attention. You guys(ABH) wouldn't let him breathe.
"Broun's strategy was to exploit the Athens-Augusta divide...": Agreed, and it worked.
"Oh, and by the way, we didn't make that divide up....": True. It doesn't change the fact that comments were mis-represented and all of his speech was not used. The ABH grabbed onto that and ran with it from what I remember.
"Whitehead's own staff admitted that they intended to blow off Athens...": I find that hard to believe. However, I wasn't at the planning meetings. I do know that Athens was very important to Jim. So was North Georgia where most of the constituency may not have known him (as opposed to the State Senate district 24 which he served).
The last word is yours. I enjoyed the debate.
I'm sitting on the edge of my seat, pass the popcorn, please-
This about the most thrilling dissection of the next to last election I think I've ever been privy to. Gee, can we get on to how Truman beat Dewey?
K.P.'s arguments remind me of the Al Gore supporters who are still griping about how Bush stole the election.
He may have, but he ended up being president.
Whitehead may have run the most brilliant election in the history of the world, and Broun may be the doofus of all doofi, but he won -- twice now--against all the "smart" people.
"Are we splitting hairs
"Are we splitting hairs here?" Yeah, kinda. Whitehead's approach might be more sensible, but claiming to oppose amnesty while espousing a plan that included, well, amnesty, did hurt him.
"He did pay attention. You guys(ABH) wouldn't let him breathe." Chicken-egg. We'll have to agree to disagree.
Athens may have been important to Whitehead, but his staffers did admit to me and to other publications that attacking Athens was part of the plan.
Thanks for the last word and for posting.
Maybe you're right, Ghost.
Maybe you're right, Ghost. Now, did anyone else feel that Douglas got the better of Lincoln in that fourth debate in Charleston?
Great now we are going to
Great now we are going to relive the Civil War ...
Well, it is true that we'd all be whistling Dixie
if Lee had just listened to Longstreet, and flanked the Yankee left at Gettysburg.
That's at least as relevant as some of the comments about what Whitehead coulda done.
Douglas made a big mistake
Douglas made a big mistake by saying the Missouri Compromise was "no big deal." I also think he should have hit harder on the issue of German illegal immigrants.
Didn't Douglas say some town
Didn't Douglas say some town could just be wiped off the map, too?? Or was that the Iranian president??
I also think Douglas
I also think Douglas smearing Lincoln as a liberal trial lawyer backfired.
Going off into another direction entirely,
I was listening to former ACC commissioner Barrow's victory comments last night, and I, son of many sons of the South, just don't remember the Hon. John Barrow having such a pronounced Southern accent, a/k/a "drawl". Is it the salt air affecting the adenoids or something?
Seems like I remember him aggravating Doc Eldridge in rather clipp -ed syllables as one would expect of a Harvard educated lawyer. Sort of the white Barack Osama.